Project Example: Source detection of delays in public transportation networks

Research Objective

Delays in public transportation networks, such as railway systems, are not only an inconvenience for passengers, but are also a significant economic burden for the system operator. For instance, between April 2012 and March 2013, 20.4% of the German long-distance high-speed trains were more than five minutes delayed. A key element in reducing delays in public transportation networks is the successful identification of the delay source (also called origin) from a specific delay pattern. In this project, two approaches were suggested. a effective distance median and a backtracking method. The former is based on the structurally generic effective distance-based approach for the identification of infectious disease origins, and the latter is specifically designed for delay propagation. The performance analysis of the simulation study and the real examples (provided by “Deutsche Bahn”) show that both methods are effective for source detection and their performance complement each other.

Statistical Methodology


Open-source software as R package NetOrigin (Origin Estimation for Propagation Processes on Complex Networks) is available on CRAN.

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